Week 2 in the NFL features an NFC West matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams. Both teams are coming off big road wins in the opening week of the season with San Francisco hammering the Steelers by 23 points and L.A. beating Seattle 30-13.
However, the Rams were underdogs for that clash against the Seahawks and they are once against catching points as NFL betting lines opened with the Niners as 8-point road favorites for Sunday. Here are my best free NFL picks for September 17.
49ers vs Rams odds
49ers vs Rams predictions
While both teams came away with road wins last Sunday, these sides entered the season with vastly different expectations. The San Francisco 49ers came into the year with the second-best odds of winning the Super Bowl at +750 while the Los Angeles Rams were near the bottom of the futures odds board at +12,000.
That’s a pretty good indication of the talent disparity between these squads and that’s something to keep in mind despite L.A.’s outlier performance last week. The Rams took advantage of Seattle’s soft defense in Week 1 as wideouts Puka Nacua and Tutu Atwell combined for 238 of Matt Stafford’s 334 passing yards. That said, Nacua is a fifth-round rookie and Atwell had just 298 yards in 13 games (four starts) last season so expect some regression against a Niners defense that led the NFL in EPA/play a year ago.
The Rams were perfectly fine without Cooper Kupp in Week 1 but they’ll really miss the All-Pro receiver against a 49ers stop unit that held Kenny Pickett to just 5.04 yards per pass attempt last Sunday.
Keep in mind that while the Rams entered this season with the fifth-lowest-rated offensive line per PFF, the Seahawks were only able to generate three pressures and zero sacks. Meanwhile, San Francisco had a league-high 24 pressures and five sacks against the Steelers so expect Stafford to struggle.
On the other side of the ball, the Rams also excelled against Seattle. However, it’s worth mentioning that the Seahawks were moving the ball somewhat capably until both starting offensive tackles went down early in the third quarter. Other than Aaron Donald, the Rams don’t have any playmakers on defense and they’ll have a tough time containing the likes of Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle.
The Niners are not the kind of team that takes their foot off the pedal when they build a big lead. They had an incredible 11 regular season and playoff wins by double digits last year, which includes both clashes against the Rams. Back them to win big again.
My best bet: 49ers -7 (-110 at FanDuel)
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49ers vs Rams same-game parlay
49ers -7.5Brandon Aiyuk Over 58.5 receiving yardsNick Bosa to get a sack — Yes
+525 at bet365
Rams cornerbacks Derion Kendrick and Cobie Durant are poor defenders who will be exploited by 49ers wideout Brandon Aiyuk, who had 1,015 receiving yards last year.
Aiyuk ended the regular season with three consecutive games of at least 59 receiving yards, headlined by a contest against the Raiders where he hauled in nine catches for 101 yards. He had eight catches for 129 yards last week and should continue to see plenty of targets from Brock Purdy.
Nick Bosa didn’t get a sack against the Steelers in Week 1 but he had four QB pressures, which is a good indication that he’ll get to the QB soon. Bosa racked up 18.5 sacks last year with 3.5 of them coming in a pair of contests against the Rams.
The Rams didn’t allow much pressure from Seattle’s mediocre pass rush last week but left tackle Joe Noteboom surrendered five sacks and 23 pressures in just six games in 2022. He’s also dealing with an ankle injury and while that shouldn’t keep him out of the lineup, it will make it even tougher for him to handle Bosa.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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49ers vs Rams spread and Over/Under analysis
The look-ahead line before Week 1 had the 49ers installed as 6.5-point favorites for this showdown. Despite the Rams’ convincing win in Week 1, this line grew to -8 but has been bet back down to as low as -7 as of Friday. The Over/Under has seen plenty of movement going from 42 to 45.
The 49ers haven’t lost in the regular season since Week 7 of last year and have gone 10-2 against the spread in their last 12 games. The Rams ended last season going 2-9 but they did cover the spread in five of their last seven contests.
49ers coach Kyle Shanahan has gotten the best of Rams coach Sean McVay in recent years even when the Rams were a contender. The Niners have gone 8-1 SU and ATS in the last nine meetings between these rivals.
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