We’re stuck in holiday limbo.
Halloween is but a rotting pumpkin on the steps and your kids’ candy stash is down to plain chips and yellow suckers. You could put up the Christmas decorations early – despite the sideways looks you’ll get from your neighbors – but you’ve got to beat the Thanksgiving crowds to the turkey freezer to avoid frantically grabbing any old bird like you’re at the bottom of a dog pile trying to find a fumble.
NFL betting is also in limbo.
We’re well enough into the schedule to separate the contenders from the pretenders, yet not too far along that bum teams are bailing on the season. The standings show at least a two-team race in most divisions, so motivations are a mixed bag in the middle of November.
Resiliency is the key at this point: which teams can take a punch and keep coming forward and which ones are throwing in the towel? So far in 2021, NFL teams have been pretty resilient – at least from an NFL betting point of view.
Teams off a loss are 72-59-2 ATS entering Week 11, covering the spread 55 percent of the time. Give those teams off a loss some extra points on the spread, and those NFL underdogs go 45-34-1 ATS (57%).
That brings us to my first free NFL pick of the week, which is possibly the best bounce-back bet in NFL history. And it just so happens that they’re getting the points this Sunday…
